Showing posts with label ice core. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ice core. Show all posts

Wednesday, 24 September 2014

Historic and Observational Science

From AIG:
[I]t is useful to divide science into two different areas: operational science and historical (origins) science. Operational science deals with testing and verifying ideas in the present and leads to the production of useful products like computers, cars, and satellites. Historical (origins) science involves interpreting evidence from the past and includes the models of evolution and special creation. Recognizing that everyone has presuppositions that shape the way they interpret the evidence is an important step in realizing that historical science is not equal to operational science. Because no one was there to witness the past (except God), we must interpret it based on a set of starting assumptions. Creationists and evolutionists have the same evidence; they just interpret it within a different framework. Evolution denies the role of God in the universe, and creation accepts His eyewitness account—the Bible—as the foundation for arriving at a correct understanding of the universe.
and:
IF AN IDEA IS NOT TESTABLE, REPEATABLE, OBSERVABLE, AND FALSIFIABLE, IT IS NOT CONSIDERED SCIENTIFIC.
and:
 The denial of supernatural events limits the depth of understanding that science can have and the types of questions science can ask. We may define naturalism and materialism as:
Naturalism: a belief denying that an event or object has a supernatural significance; specifically, the doctrine that scientific laws are adequate to account for all phenomena.
Materialism: a belief claiming that physical matter is the only or fundamental reality and that all organisms, processes, and phenomena can be explained as manifestations or interactions of matter.
The problem with the above definition of science is that, even though naturalistic science claims to be neutral and unbiased, it starts with a bias. The quote from Dr. Todd on page 19 demonstrates that bias: only matter and energy exist and all explanations and causes must be directly related to the laws that matter and energy follow. Even if the amazingly intricate structure of flagella in bacteria appears so complex that it must have a designer, naturalistic science cannot accept that idea because this idea falls outside the realm of naturalism/materialism. Many scientists have claimed that allowing supernatural explanations into our understanding of the universe would cause us to stop looking for answers and just declare, “God wanted to do it that way.” This is, of course, false.
The ability to study the world around us is only reasonable because there is a Lawgiver who established the laws of nature. Most people do not realize that modern science was founded by men who believed that nature can be studied because it follows the laws given to it by the Lawgiver. Johannes Kepler, one of the founders of astronomy, said that science was “thinking God’s thoughts after Him.” Many founders of scientific disciplines, such as Bacon, Newton, Kepler, Galileo, Pascal, Boyle, Dalton, Linnaeus, Mendel, Maxwell, and Kelvin were Bible-believing Christians.  
... In a biblical worldview, scientific observations are interpreted in light of the truth that is found in the Bible. If conclusions contradict the truth revealed in Scripture, the conclusions are rejected. The same thing happens in naturalistic science. Any conclusion that does not have a naturalistic explanation is rejected.
...Making a distinction between two types of scientific study helps us to understand the limitations of naturalistic presuppositions in science:Operational (Observational) Science: a systematic approach to understanding that uses observable, testable, repeatable, and falsifiable experimentation to understand how nature commonly behaves.
Operational science is the type of science that allows us to understand how DNA codes for proteins in cells. It is the type of science that has allowed us to cure and treat diseases, put a man on the moon, build satellites and telescopes, and make products that are useful to humans. Biblical creationists believe that God has created a universe that uses a set of natural laws that operate consistently in the universe. Understanding how those laws operate is the basis for scientific thinking.
Some events defy natural laws. Christians refer to these things as miracles, but naturalistic science must find a way to explain these occurrences naturally. This approach rejects miracles in the Bible because they cannot be explained using natural laws. Such scientists occasionally try to explain the miracles in the Bible as natural phenomena, but this ultimately undermines the authority of God and His Word.
Historical (Origins) Science: interpreting evidence from past events based on a presupposed philosophical point of view.
The past is not directly observable, testable, repeatable, or falsifiable; so interpretations of past events present greater challenges than interpretations involving operational science. Neither creation nor evolution is directly observable, testable, repeatable, or falsifiable. Each is based on certain philosophical assumptions about how the earth began. Naturalistic evolution assumes that there was no God, and biblical creation assumes that there was a God who created everything in the universe. Starting from two opposite presuppositions and looking at the same evidence, the explanations of the history of the universe are very different. The argument is not over the evidence—the evidence is the same—it is over the way the evidence should be interpreted.
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That's a long set of excerpts.  Read more -there is a lot more - at the link.

I feel there are two main themes in the post and in the excerpted above.  The (artificial) distinction between observational and historic science and the inclusion of the supernatural in science. I also want to look at the claim that natural laws require a lawgiver.

This all-in-caps quote demonstrates the perceived difference between observational and historic science."IF AN IDEA IS NOT TESTABLE, REPEATABLE, OBSERVABLE, AND FALSIFIABLE, IT IS NOT CONSIDERED SCIENTIFIC."

I agree with this wholeheartedly.  If only I could find an example of so-called historic science that failed these criteria.
Let's look at the Greenland Ice Cores.  Superficially, looking at the long, thin cylinders and counting backwards through the layers is problematic.  We have not seen the snow fall on that location for more than a few decades and as the layer pile up and squeeze those below, there might be changes in the way those layers look, confusing the observer.
However, there are ways to repeat the tests and falsify them.  Let's look at falsification first.  The original creationist argument mentions "isotopes" once in one sentence and never again.  The method of looking for differences in the isotope ratios is not explored and yet it is a way to test the results.  The article also leaves out the presence of identifiable volcanic dust and ash.  When researchers find dust at 200 years-before-present, they can look for records of volcanic eruptions and compare the dates.  This is the definition of falsification.

Is it repeatable?  Yes.  There is lots of ice out there and researchers can drill more than one core and compare the results of one to another.

The same thing happens when we look at the insertion of viral DNA and how if an this happened to an ancestor all the descendants should have the inserted DNA in the appropriate place.  Researchers in a variety of locations and labs can look at viral DNA and compare that to the DNA in humans and other apes and confirm to deny that the DNA is the same.  Exceptions can be looked for.  No such exceptions have been found.

The Sensuous Curmudgeon covered similar ground in 2012.

Now for whether the supernatural can tested in a scientific way.  No, it can't.  When I teach ESL to young children, I sometimes amuse them by appearing to push a piece of chalk into one ear and pulling it out the other.  If you accept the supernatural, then even if you see that the chalk is hidden in my hand in one performance, you have to accept that the next time I do the trick, real magic occurred.

In my opinion, the best response to the science-testing-the-supernatural claim comes from Richard Hoppe and his look at Behe's suggested bacterial flagellum experiment.  Behe had suggested that bacteria lacking a flagellum be exposed to condition that would favor the evolution of a flagellum to see if one actually evolved.

Hoppe thought about the results of such an experiment.  
But then Hoppe notes that Behe states we can know nothing about the Designer and Its abilities.  He then imagines the experiment runs its course and bacteria flagellum appear...
. Does that mean that evolution works and ID is “disproven”? Not at all. After all, since we know nothing about the skill set and intentions of the putative designer(s), it’s possible that the designer(s) somehow ‘watched’ our culture, and sometime during the course of the generations ‘reached’ in and poofed a flagellum into existence on one of the bacteria.
If a flagellum appears, it means that evolution occurred the bacteria gained the flagellum through evolutionary processes or that The Designer chose to give them a flagellum.  If no flagellum appears, it means evolution did not occur or that it did occur and the bacteria were about to sprout flagella but The Designer chose to remove it. 

 Adding the supernatural to the mix means nothing can be scientifically determined. The argument turns into the brain-in-a-jar-on-a-desk-in-a-lab hypothesis.  If the supernatural is accepted, then nothing is settled.  We see what The Designer wants us to see and nothing else.  I try to keep this a religion-neutral blog but the only rebuttal that I can see Christians make to this point is that the Christian God is always honest and never deceptive.  If that is the case, then we can accept what our senses inform us of and the supernatural is not relevant.

"The ability to study the world around us is only reasonable because there is a Lawgiver who established the laws of nature."
The laws are what is observed, not required.  The quote above makes the same conflation that allows the joke about the judge outlawing gravity to be funny.  The law of universal gravitation has nothing in common with the laws of your country against murder.  The former is a fact of the universe and the latter is a arbitrary rule made by humans.
Further, Ham et al require the 'lawgiver' to mess around with the laws of nature.  In addition to claiming that any change to the laws of nature would destroy us all, they need the speed of light to change so light from distant stars can reach the Earth in six thousand years or less.  They need ice layers in Greenland to pile up so they appear to show one hundred thousand years  after only four thousand years passed.
They simultaneously state that the laws of nature are unchanging and they may have been different in the past.
Henry Morris made this claim - link is to Talk Origins:
Radiometric dating assumes that radioisotope decay rates are constant, but this assumption is not supported. All processes in nature vary according to different factors, and we should not expect radioactivity to be different.Source:
Morris, Henry M. 1985. Scientific Creationism. Green Forest, AR: Master Books, p. 139.
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In his debate with Bill Nye, Ham stated that the current diversity of life evolved from the far-fewer animals on the ark, simultaneously arguing against evolution and requiring evolution to occur at far faster rates than ever observed.
Nye argued that there are some 16,000,000 species on the planet today, and that if there was a Flood only 4,000 years ago, and only 7,000 representative species on the Ark to start with, there would have to have been 11 new species evolving every day over the last 4,000 years since the Flood.

Sunday, 9 February 2014

Reactions to the Ham vs Nye debate

This post is not finished but I don't know when that will be.  I watched the opening of the debate live, then stopped and drove to my in-laws and watched the last hour or so.  Then I began watching again and have made it to one hour, thirty-nine minutes.  I do plan to see the fifteen or twenty minute gap.

A friend described those who found Nye the clear winner to be displaying confirmation bias.  I had made similar, but less eloquent, statements so I was pleased to see my own conclusion reinforced.  Still, Nye did a lot right.

I guess I need to give some specifics at the start.  On Feb 4, Ken Ham defended the proposition that Creation is the most viable model of origins in today's modern, scientific era against Bill Nye, who defended evolution.  The video is available at a few locations but I don't know for how long: try here, here and here.


My own impressions:
Ham is getting mileage from his previous debate -at Harvard in the '90s.
Ham has a degree in applied science -emphasis in environmental biology.

five minute intro: Ham begins the attack and offers scientists who accept creationism but do science. Of course, they don't appear to use creation science in their work. Then, he gets into his personal division of science into observational and historic focuses.

Nye takes his time to gain some acceptance by telling a pretty good, but long, joke.  Then he uses the example of CSI to tear down the idea of two kinds of science.  
Billions of people are religious but not creationists.

thirty minute talks.
Ham: More professional scientist claiming they are creationists without any appearance of using creationism in their work.
Ham and one of his scientist discusses Lenski's work: The ability to grow on citrate is not complex new ability.
Andrew Fabich: E-coli supposably evolving.  The information is already there - it's just a switch that's turned on and off.  There's nothing new. ... Later, Dr Lenski and his student read Fabich's claim in horror and have responded 1, 2, 3.  I have excerpted a few paragraphs from the third link below in my notes of reactions to the debate. (More about Dr Lenski.)

"Darwin was racist." From a book -not necessarily by Darwin - "The highest race of all, the Caucasians..." Everyone from the 1800's would appear racist to us today. Australians, Ham's own nationality, had some racist image problems even just a few decades ago.

I just remembered how to do screen shots: 




In discussing the difference between observational and historic science, Ham showed a video of Nye talking about creationists accepting many scientific wonders -including smoke detectors - while yet not accepting evolution.  Ham emphasized a few such wonders -including smoke detectors - and called then observational science.  And yet, I think smoke detectors use the half-life of radioactive elements and this must remain unchanged through history or the detector's results would be meaningless.


Nye:
Deep time. - ice cores.

Nine thousand year old tree.

"Your claim, for me, is not satisfactory." An elegant statement but not a thrilling one.

Nye on Ham's need for incredible speed in evolution to suit creationism's short time line:

Noah's ark and modern shipbuilding.


Around 1:20, Nye talks about the Big Bang Theory. This is important stuff and you need to explain the small details, but it takes a lot of time and comes off as a little dry at a debate.  I hope creationists were listening.

First 5:00 minute rebuttal
Ham:
"You can't observe the age of the Earth"
Radioactive decay - Uranium to lead, etc.
"The point is, there's a problem." - Yes, there is. The radiocarbon dating used on the wood can only give results up to around 50,000 years so a result in that range is equal to a pegged needle.  To suggest otherwise is dishonest. This claim can also be found at creation.com  and the original source, 'research' by Andrew Snelling is at the same site.   Gondwana Research looks into a similar claim here.

The more I think about this, the more impressed I am with Ham's daring, with his cajones (it seems less crude in a foreign language).  If Nye had understood how radiometric dating worked -and why didn't he, this was an obvious direction for a Young Earther to go? -he could have exposed clear dishonesty on Ham's part.

Dr Steve Austin used Potassium-Argon dating on a lava flow from Mt St. Helens.  The results varied greatly.

There is a big problem.  From Wikipedia: "Due to the long half-life, the technique is most applicable for dating minerals and rocks more than 100,000 years old. For shorter timescales, it is likely that not enough Argon 40 will have had time to accumulate in order to be accurately measurable."


slides from 1:32:00 - get them while on Windows computer.


Nye:
Didn't understand about radiocarbon dating - dang it!!! Attempted a rebuttal and moved on.
"Were the fish sinners?"
On Ham's claim that you cannot see the past, "but that's what astronomers do."

2nd rebuttal
Ham:
"What is a kind? ...  Predicted less than a thousand kinds on Noah's ark."
1:42 - planes in the ice on Greenland. Wow!  and Wow!
Bears have teeth very much like a lion or tiger.  Look at a panda's teeth - it looks like it should be a savage carnivore.
      Okay, I just searched with Google images for lion, bear, panda bear and Australian fruit bat teeth.  All have big scary canines.  The bears and bat all have grinding molars and the lion has only cutting teeth.  I guess he figures Nye can't do the search in time for his next turn to talk.

"The Chinese and the Egyptians built big boats. Research shows some had three layers interlocking so they wouldn't twist like that (like the Nye discussed a giant American wooden ship had twisted and leaked)."  Right, except the only place i can find news of three interlocking layers is at Creationist websites and there is substantial disagreement about whether the giant Chinese ships were actually built (some claim they were and did sail to India and elsewhere, others say they only floated in a sheltered lake, others say they may have existed on land and finally some say they were never built).

Horizon problem. Light and the expanding universe.

Nye:
1000 kinds makes Nye's criticism even stronger - instead of needing 11 new species to appear every day, now we need 35!
Nye claims some knowledge of shipbuilding and is skeptical that Noah could build the Ark with seven others.
"...explain to us why we should accept your word for it that natural law changed 4000 years ago, completely, and there's no record of it.  You know, there are pyramids that are older than that."
It is not reasonable to me to believe that everything changed 4000 years ago: species, the surface of the Earth, the stars in the sky and the relationships of all the other things on Earth to humans.

Evolution is not exclusively atheistic.

We need scientists and engineers.
---

Questions from the audience
1st question - Nye asks ham if he can predict something
2nd What was before the Big Bang?  Nye: I don't know - it is wonderful!
Ham: "There is a book..."
3rd dating techniques
Ham:....appendix is very important to the immune system -
...I did make predictions....one race, God made kinds
4th question - how did consciousness come from matter
Nye: "Don't know.  It's a great mystery. ...The joy of discovery."
Ham: There is a book" .. debaters both beyond debate subject....  Ham: after you die, you are gone, why bother with discovery?
5th question "What would change your mind?"
Ham:  long answer  "No one's ever going to convince me that the word of God is not true."
The model of the flood is subject to change but the fact of the flood is not subject to change.
Nye: We would need evidence. Bring on any of those things and you would change me immediately.
--
6th question: radiometric dating
Nye the science is strong on radiometric dating
Ham: showed slide from before "Hundreds of physical processes..."
This is a form of the Gish Gallop.  I know the coral reef claim is wrong and I'm pretty sure the meteor dust one is, too.  Note that Ham doesn't even try to defend any of them so what is Nye to do, attack 50+ in his next turn.  And even if he did, from the little info Ham offered, Ham could say, "No, I meant a different form of meteor dust buildup" or the like.

7th Question for Ham: Compare the rate of continental plates today to the rate 6000 years ago.
Ham: There was a catastrophic breakup.  Historic V observational science.
Nye: It must have been easier for you to explain this a hundred years ago.  The evidence of reversed magnetic fields supports old age slow plate movement evidence.

8th:  Favorite colour

9th: 2nd law of thermodynamics
Nye: Earth is not a closed system.We receive energy from the sun.
Ham: Energy or matter will never produce life.

10th: Could you be convinced the world is older than c10,000 years.
Ham: No
Nye: You want us all to take your claim based on nothing.  What can you predict?

11th: Is there room for God in science?
Nye: yes.
Ham: God is necessary for science.  observational v historic science. We assume laws of logic, nature the uniformity of nature. Where does that (as I've written it, "Where do they come from) come from?

12: Mr Ham, do you take everything in the Bible literally? Should we stone pig-touchers? Should men marry many wives?
Ham: Define literally.  If it's history, like Genesis, take it as literal.  The Bible shows marriage to multiple women causes trouble.
Nye: You pick and choose what to take literally.
---
stopped at 2:28

Monday, 21 November 2011

Greenland ice and icecores: the lost squadron

This is my first post here and I want to get into the meat of an argument I've had with a creationist here in Busan.  Still, some background is probably necessary.

My creationist coworker sent me a long (20 page) discussion of why secular science is wrong about the age of the Earth.  That was the first article he gave me.  He has now sent me four or five and all of a similar length and breadth.  There are two problems with much of the stuff he sends me.  Well, two problems that affect my ability to respond.

First, although he gives an enormous number of references and links, he has admitted that he has not read all of them.  To my uncertain knowledge, of the 39 bullet point examples he gives showing that modern science's aging techniques are wrong, he has read fewer than 10% himself.  I believe this to true for all the references and mined quotes he offers.  I feel that with his name on the article, all errors affect his credibility.
Second, he occasionally covers material that I don't understand well enough to critique and I don't think he understands well enough to use as a defense.  For example, I know the absolute basics of radiocarbon dating and nothing of the practicalities.  How does one collect a sample and ensure it is not contaminated?  I don't know.  For me, this is reason enough to read the articles with interest but not to post them with my stamp of approval.  I'm not asking for expertise - that would be hypocritical- but when I offer a link, I do so only if I understand the concepts.

The article I'm starting on today covered many aspects of how to date the Earth or what is wrong with dating methods that give answers greater than 6-10,000 years.  This article had many different articles and links in it and I am looking at one of these titled, "Ice Core Sample Dating/ The Lost Squadron".  The original was by Carl Wieland and my coworker appears to have copied it in its entirety from creation.com/the-lost-squadron although the article contains a hyperlink to Answers in Genesis.  I don't think there are copyright issues as he has given links and this means I can share a link the original article.

In brief, the Wieland's article attempts to show why ice cores taken from Greenland glaciers cannot show ages of tens of thousands of years.  That material would be rather dry, and is in fact untrue, so he uses the dramatic true story of a fleet of US fighters and bombers that crash landed on the island as a disguise or hook.  Indeed, of the fifteen or so paragraphs, ten describe the fate of the aircraft and only a few actually discuss ice cores.  One of the key excerpts:
...the 3000-metre-long ice core [brought up by the joint European Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP) in Greenland in 1990–1992] would only represent some 2,000 years of accumulation.

The article is amazing as a tutorial in how to lie by omission.  One would imagine that the ice cores were taken very near the crash-site. but the two are in fact hundreds of kilometres apart and in what I would describe as different climatic areas.  The planes are near the coast where they receive ocean-effect precipitation (Wikipedia - short version: lots), while the ice core site is more than a hundred kilometres inland.  Here is all the location information given:
Regarding the planes: "Realising that their only hope was to crash-land on the icy wastes of Greenland’s east coast, they desperately searched till they found a break in the cloud cover."
And here is everything the article has to say about the location of the ice cores: " "

On maps, the two locations are clearly distant. Further, one is quite distant inland, while the other is on the coast. Maps (Glacier Girl, Eismitte):


A possibly more accurate map of the ice core site is here.

Why is it important that one site is on the coast and the other more than a hundred kilometres inland?  Because of something called Ocean Effect Snow.  This is also known as Lake effect snow and simply describes the phenomenon of greater snowfall occurring close to unfrozen bodies of water than distant from water.  Greenland's coast around the crash site received about 1.5 metres of snow per year but that does not mean that inland site would get a similar amount.

How much snow does the Eismitte get?
Between 1910 and '28, it received less than half a metre a year. Added later. That link seems to fail. Again, less than half a metre a year (updated Mar 10, 2019).
More recently (and from a different, but nearby location):



Both show average snowfalls of less than half a metre - the average in the image is 0.24- metres.
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Added later: True Size Map shows the size of countries without distortion brought on by using a Mercator projection map.  Because Greenland is so far north, it looks huge.  In True Size Map, I pulled it down to the continental USA and it is a lot narrower there - but still longer North-South than the USA so clearly saying the two events are in Greenland cannot mean they must have similar weather conditions
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I believe I have shown why Weiland's article cannot be trusted and is probably deliberately dishonest.  Is there more to the story?  Yes, thanks for asking.

From Weiland's article:
In fact, ice cores in Greenland are used for dating, based on the belief that layers containing varying isotope ratios were laid down, somewhat like the rings of a tree, over many tens of thousands of years.
This is the only description of how secular scientists (should those two words be in quotes?) determine the age of segments of the ice core.  There is no attempt to show why varying isotope ratios should be incorrect either.  Left out of Weiland's work is how ice cores can be calibrated by looking for volcanic ash from known eruptions.

To summarize, not only are Weiland's conclusions wrong, they show a strange combination of in-depth research on certain areas and no research on others.  The highest quality of research is on matters that do not relate to the controversy being discussed.  For example, we learn what device is used, and what it's parameters are, for melting the ice to reach the planes, but no details on where the planes were found compared to the location of ice core drilling site.  Further, they the two locations are suggested to be near one another -note the quote about 3000 metres of ice equalling 2000 years accumulation as if those 3000 metres were in the same climate zone.

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The story gets more disturbing when I relate a verbal discussion I had with my coworker about these issues.  He brought up two rebuttals to my claims.  They were:
1) moraines Dang it, what is the term?  The formation of lakes of liquid water somewhere on the glacier- The water in these locations could have been responsible for higher snowfall rates at the ice core sites.  He used the right term, but I have forgotten what it is.

2) The theory that where there is more snow on the ground, that place receives more snowfall.

To my knowledge, the liquid water found on the glacier is a sign of a drainage area that sometimes becomes blocked and fills.  These are not large enough to affect local weather and the direct measurements at the ice core sites given above show the snow fall was much lower than at the coast.

His second claim was clearly off the cuff but it still bothers me.  To defend the claim by using the word 'theory' as if more than one person believed it seems deceptive.

Regarding The Lost Squadron article, I am willing to give my coworker the benefit of the doubt, but I feel I need to repeat that Weiland showed strong research skills when describing the aircraft and their manner of removal from the ice to have accidentally missed: 1) the great distance between the two locations, 2) the observed snowfall records at both locations and 3) the many ways in which the ice layer can be dated and how these different methods have agreed with each other.
Status: Deliberately deceptive!
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Later additions: Talk origins briefly discussed the subject on their feedback page in march '99.  I suggest visiting the page and using the 'find' option in the 'edit' button of your browser to find it.

Talk Origins has another page on the subject with a copyright date of 2007 and an information page on ice core dating.